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Mississippi at MISSISSIPPI ST Under 61 by 11

Nobody is sure about who will win Thursday night's Egg Bowl, including the Vegas odds makers. Ole Miss opened as a one-point road favorite on Sunday and climbed to a 1.5-point favorite soon afterwards. By Sunday evening the line had flipped to favor Mississippi State by two and is now Mississippi State - 2½. As of this writing, the over/under had settled at 61.5 points.

Ole Miss (4-7, 2-5 SEC) and Mississippi State (5-6, 2-5 SEC) will kick off at 6:30 p.m. CT Thanksgiving night. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

Both teams potentially are playing to extend their seasons. Mississippi State needs just one win to become outright bowl eligible, while a fifth win could deliver Ole Miss to the postseason via its high APR (academic progress rate). The Rebels, though, would still need some help from across the country from other teams even if they left Starkville with a victory.

One thing is for sure: There will be no bowl game for the loser, as Mississippi State is not in the conversation for a potential five-win, APR postseason berth.

The road team has won the last four contests in the more than century-old rivalry.

Last year's game, played in Oxford, was won by Mississippi State 35-3. The contest was marred by a bench-clearing brawl that saw seven players ejected from the contest at the end of the third quarter. Every player on each team were issued unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. The heat carried over into the postgame, as reporters witnessed Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead exchange words with a member of the Ole Miss administration as the teams were exiting the field.

Mississippi State defeated Abilene Christian 45-7 on Saturday, while Ole Miss enjoyed an open date.

The Bulldogs come in as ever-so-slight favorites, the closest spread between the teams since 2015.

The Rebels needed a miracle to stay in contention for a bowl berth and didn’t get it as they dropped a 58-37 decision to No. 1-ranked LSU. But Ole Miss put forth a valiant effort, particularly on the offensive end – and having averaged 39 points over its past two games bodes well for a Rebels team that managed only a field goal in last year’s one-sided home loss to the Bulldogs.

Establishing the running game will go a long way toward helping the Rebels upset the Bulldogs – and in order to do it effectively, they’ll likely need Scottie Phillips on the field. The standout running back has missed the previous two games with an ankle injury and is considered questionable for Thursday; he ranks third on the team in rush yards (542) and second in TDs (five).

It’s hard to gauge what kind of Bulldogs team will show up Thursday. On one hand, Mississippi State is coming off emphatic wins over Arkansas and Alcorn State with a one-sided loss to Alabama sandwiched in between. But the Bulldogs have also gone 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games and continue to rank well outside the top 100 in pass offense (182.2 yards per game).

Like Ole Miss, the key for Mississippi State will likely be a stout ground attack – and based on running back Kylin Hill’s most notable splits, there might not be a more meaningful development in this game. Hill has 87 carries for 632 yards (7.3 YPC) and eight touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ five victories this season, and 89 carries for just 344 yards (3.9 YPC) and two scores in defeat.

The Rebels are on an ATS tear and will be extra motivated in this year’s Egg Bowl with an opportunity to keep their biggest rival out of the bowl picture. Ole Miss is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games and Mississippi State is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games.

This game is going to be a war. Essentially, the battle of Mississippi.

These two rivals actually hate each other and want nothing more than to crush each other. We can only see two stout defenses playing smash mouth football in this game. Both defenses will be ornery and picking the side is nothing more than a flip of the coin.

The one trend that seems to be strong is the UNDER, as Mississippi and Mississippi St. have gone 5-1 to the under their last 6 games. We prefer to stick with trend, and hope it's our friend, and we don't get egg all over our face in the Egg Bowl. Play under 61 in this game.
Projected Score: Mississippi St. 26, Mississippi 24


 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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