NFL Betting Guide On How to Handicap the 1st Half of the Season

With training camps now almost upon us, we can start to seriously think about how we are going to bet in the opening week of the NFL season. Of course, most bettors are going to wait until much closer to the start of the season to place bets, as there are the inevitable injuries and line changes to come before we get to the start of Week 1, lets take a look

Lefty Urias gets the start for the Dodgers today. The left-hander was solid down the stretch for L.A. and has carried that over to the postseason. Urias threw eight innings in the playoffs and allowed just one unearned run on four hits while striking out 11.

Braves right-hander Wright didn’t have a good regular season, pitching to a 5.21 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, but he was brilliant in his postseason debut. Wright shut out the Marlins over six innings on just three hits while striking out seven in the divisional round.

Don’t write off the Dodgers just yet. Los Angeles showed a lot of fight in Game 2. They seemed to come to life late in the last game. Don't forget, they were the best team in the regular season by far, leading the MLB in wins (43) and run differential (+136). Now they hand the ball to a hot lefty in Urias, while the Braves counter with Wright, who, outside of a very good start here or there, has not performed great this season. The Dodgers will pose a much bigger challenge for Wright.

Urias was 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA & Wright 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA. A weird stat I found while handicapping is the fact that Urias was 5-0 in night games and Wright went 0-4 in night games this year. So, let's call this game a twi-nighter. The Dodgers will carry the momentum they built at the end of Game 2 into this one and ride it to a big win. It's gona take a lefty to get the Dodgers right. Take them by a couple of runs.
TAKE: LA DODGERS - 1.5 RUNS - 110

My series wager on the Tampa Bay Rays over the NY Yankees was a winner, but my distaste for the Houston Astros dented my bankroll as they won their previous series. I released the Rays vs The Cheaters in this series and we're sitting in a good spot at this time.

The Rays are 7-2 this postseason and their pitching staff has allowed two or less runs in five of those nine games. The Rays are allowing an average of 1.3 runs in their last three games. If those numbers continue, the Rays will sweep the Astros. Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier and Joey Wendle are hitting the ball like it's a softball.

Ryan Yarbrough gets the ball for the Rays tonight, and he was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 44 strikeouts this season. Yarbrough is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and two strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Astros need a win here to have any chance in this series. The Astros have lost three of their last four games and have scored just three runs in this series.

It's tough to bet against the Rays pitching right now, and Yarbrough is another solid arm who has allowed a combined four runs and 14 hits in his last 15 innings. Furthermore, I'm not betting against my series play. Also, no way am I backing Urquidy off his postseason record of allowing five runs and seven hits in 8.2 innings this postseason, which makes for an ERA over five.

But, the one thing I noticed in this series, as mentioned above, the Astros have been striking the ball, but they're not hitting them where they ain't. I'll let my series wager ride on the Rays, but for action tonight, I'm going to take a shot with the Astros scoring at least 4 runs tonight. Couple that with Urquidy 5+ ERA in postseason I'm going to bang over 8.5 runs in this game. Hey if the score gets to 4-4 we're a winner. Take Under 8.5 Runs

The Dodgers have been rolling and my earlier fear of postseason collapse has not materialized. So will I get caught up in the switcheroo tonight. Hope not, Kershaw has been dominant against the Padres with a career mark of 21-7 with 277 striketouts. That's an average of almost 10 strikeouts a game and obviously he didn't go the distance in all of those games or maybe none of those games. I'm certainly not going to buck that trend. TAKE: LA DODGERS - 1.5 RUNS

I did very well with yesterdays Miami Heat pick. They performed just as I expected. The next game is gonna be unreal because cry baby LeBron is really mad. After the first quarter he said to Jimmy Butler "you're in trouble". After the 4th quarter JB gave it right back to him with his own words "you're in trouble". Cry baby LeBron then walked off the court with 10 seconds left in disgust. Ha ah he got just what he deserved.

Well I also fared well in the wild-card round correctly tabbing the Los Angeles Dodgers as the favorite to load up on and bet your mortgageon. We also cashed in the longshot as well with the Miami Marlins. The lone loser I had was the underdog bet on the Cincinnati Reds who did live up to Joey Votto stating the team was a nightmare; and they were for sure!

It’s time to turn my attention to the division round in hopes of further bolstering the proverebial bank roll. Unlike the opening round where the games took place at the higher seeded teams home field, the division round will take place in a bubble with the Yankees/Rays squaring off in Petco Park, A’s/Astros at Dodger Stadium, Braves/Marlins at Minute Maid Park and Dodgers/Padres at Globe Life Field. Let’s jump into the current MLB series odds offerings and see where the value lies!

ODDS TO WIN DIVISION SERIES
Yankees -130 vs. Rays +110
A’s -137 vs. Astros +137
Braves -306 vs. Marlins +250
Dodgers -297 vs. Padres +243
My Best Favorite to Bet: Atlanta Braves -306
Everything lined up perfectly for the Marlins in the wild-card round. The Chicago Cubs might’ve logged the fourth-best record in the National League, but a bulk of those wins came against NL Central opposition. In case you live under a rock, you know all four teams that qualified for the playoffs from that division failed to advance into the division round. As great a story Miami has been to this point of the MLB betting season, it’s glass slipper is about to get cracked by an Atlanta Braves outfit firmly aware of what the team brings to the table. Though Atlanta doesn’t have much in terms of starting pitching past Max Fried and Ian Anderson, it’s bullpen is second best behind the Dodgers in the National League. On top of that, Freddie Freeman and company flat-out rake right-handed pitching and that’s basically all the Marlins will throw at them at the outset of every game. The fact that the Braves took four of the six regular season meetings leads me to believe they’re a pretty safe bet to advance to the NLCS.

Another Series Bet: Oakland A’s -137
The A’s displayed a ton of moxie by coming back to thwart the Chicago White Sox in the opening round of the postseason. It displayed the heart of a champion in Game 3 by battling back from an early 3-0 deficit to punch its way to the ALDS by way of some timely hitting and a good effort out of the bullpen. That’s been the recipe of success for Bob Melvin’s squad all season long, and I don’t foresee it ending in this crucial series against a Houston team it dominated throughout the regular season. The A’s toppled the Astros in seven of the 10 overall meetings, and won those games by an average of 2.7 runs per game. Matt Olson is one of the premiere first baseman in the game, and he’s backed by a number of gamers in the forms of Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Marcus Semien and Khris Davis. Oakland also has a number of live arms in Frankie Montas and Jesus Luzardo who could really give Houston’s bats some issues if they get locked back in. Oakland sports by far the better overall bullpen as well, and that’s ultimately going to decide this one with Houston lacking in the starting pitching department due to a number of crippling injuries. Goodbye cheaters!

Scary Series: LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
Let me preface this by stating I believe the Dodgers have far and away the best roster in the game. No ifs, ands or buts about it. But in a five-game series, the best team doesn’t always win. Jayce Tingler’s squad certainly has the offensive firepower and live arms both in the rotation and pen to spring the upset. Much would have to go right for that to occur however. The inclusion of Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet on the NLDS roster gives me hesitation. Remember what I told you many times before. When you hesitate, back off! But, I have an uneasy feeling about this series, so I'm not going to bet this series. I'll take it game by game. With that, I’d make it a point to see the rosters and pitchers game by game before putting your money down. I’d argue that San Diego’s starting rotation is on par and maybe even better than what the reigning NL West champs bring to the table. Pair that with an explosive offense that could go off at the drop of a hat, and the Dodgers near 75 percent implied probability of winning this series is nothing short of ludicrous! As great Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have been atop the order, it’s going to take a Herculean effort to advance to the NLCS. I truly believe “Slam Diego” has it in them to pull off the feat, but it’s going to need reinforcements it didn’t have against the weak hitting St. Louis Cardinals to pull it off. Beware and bet careful in this series, it may just break your bankroll.

Yankees - 130 vs Rays
If the regular season means anything, the Yankees figure to be in trouble, as they dropped eight of the 10 meetings between the teams this year. But the Yankees brushed off their road woes by beating the Indians in Cleveland in the wild-card round, while the Rays easily knocked off the Blue Jays. They’ve met just once since Aroldis Chapman threw a 101 mph fastball over Mike Brosseau’s head last month, which fired up the rivalry even more. The Yankees and Rays will be taking the East Coast battle to the West Coast in Petco Park.

Boone said Gerrit Cole will start Game 1. They’ll have to rely on Masahiro Tanaka and — unlike in the wild-card series, at least one more starter, maybe J.A. Happ. If the series goes five games, Jordan Montgomery and Deivi Garcia will potentially be in the mix. The Rays will go with Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton in the first three games. Snell and Glasnow have been excellent and Morton was better toward the end of season. Ryan Yarbrough is a good option for Game 4, with Snell a possibility for Game 5.

This a tough one to handicap, but putting my Yankee fan hat aside and my emphasis on my bankroll, I have to give an edge to the Rays. As I mentioned above, the Yanks dropped eight of their 10 meetings. Conversely, Cole dominated the Rays twice with the Astros in last year’s ALDS. So with that in mind, what are the chances that the Rays will lose 4 straight games vs Cole? I say this because I believe Cole will have to win two games for the Yanks to win the series. My heart says to pass or take the Yanks, but my handicapper within says to back the Rays in the generous underdog role.

What's killing the Heat is the fact that the Lakers have turned 25 offensive rebounds into 37 second-chance points during the first two games of the series. That alone is way too much to overcome. The Heat just couldn't get a stop defensively or get a rebound and a lot of that had to do with Bam Adebayo being out. I think the Heat gets Bam Adebayo back for this game. But I doubt starting guard Goran Dragic can come back from that fasciatis tear. I personally had the same and couldn't even walk. Even with a cortisone shot he will be ineffective. Miami outscored Los Angeles by 17 points in the eight minutes that the trio of Jimmy Butler, Adebayo and Dragic played together in Game 1 of the Finals before Adebayo and Dragic went down with injuries during that contest and missed Game 2.

Even without Adebayo and Dragic, the Heat turned in its most efficient offensive performance of the playoffs in Friday’s Game 2 loss. Miami scored 114 points on an efficient 50.7 percent shooting from the field and 11-of-27 (40.7 percent) shooting on threes, and also finished 31 of 34 (91.2 percent) from the foul line.

The Miami Heat had their chances to win game two. If Bam plays, that's a major boost to this Heat lineup at both ends of the court. The Heat are 0-2 and this game is a must win to get back in the series. Miami will put forth their best effort, especially on defense and the boards. The Heat are very hungry and will attack the Lakers like a junkyard dog on a XMAS ham. I'll take the 10 points with the Heat here, assuming Bam is in the lineup.

Sixto Sanchez vs. Yu Darvish: Interestingly, the superior pitching matchup might come in Game 2 when these two talented hurlers go at it.
Darvish, of course, crafted a sensational 2020, even being one of the frontrunners for this year’s NL Cy Young Award. He led the league in wins with eight and finished in the top five in ERA (2.01) and WHIP (0.96). His usual excellent strikeout rate (11.0 K/9) wasn’t too shabby, either.
Miami will likely counter with their young starter in Sanchez. The 22-year-old rookie can actually match Darvish’s heat, firing up an eye-opening average fastball velocity of 99 mph. Although he struggled a bit after his outstanding first five starts in the big leagues, Sanchez looks like he can handle this Cubs lineup. TAKE: UNDER TOTAL RUNS as soon as line is posted.

The leaves are turning color, fall is in the air, I'm on my deck writing my Preakness Stakes Tip Sheet for Today's Racing Digist. The final leg of the 2020 Triple Crown — the Preakness Stakes — caps off a sensory overload weekend of high profile sporting events. For the first time ever, the Preakness is a designated “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Kentucky Derby winner Authentic figures to be the solid post-time favorite since Belmont and Travers Stakes winner and Derby runner-up Tiz the Law has opted to pass on the Preakness and wait for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.The Preakness appeared to lose some luster with Tiz the Law’s defection, but the announcement that the filly Swiss Skydiver will take on the boys makes for an interesting matchup. Swiss Skydiver comes off a runner-up effort behind Shedaresthedevil in the Kentucky OaksSwiss Skydiver comes off a runner-up effort behind Shedaresthedevil in the Kentucky Oaks and will be making her ninth start of the year at her ninth different track. She has maintained her sharp form all year and did show she can compete with the boys, finishing second to Preakness contender Art Collector in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in July. There you go ladies, she will be going off at a decent price and if in the exacta will payoff a decent ROI on your investment.

Authentic used a perfect trip from his outside post to win the Kentucky Derby and give trainer Bob Baffert a record-tying sixth Derby victory. Art Collector, who was scratched from the Kentucky Derby with a minor foot injury, is undefeated in four starts this year and has a healthy work tab going into the Preakness. From post three, Art Collector should be able
to fall into a nice ground-saving trip stalking the early leaders.

Mr. Big News made a big looping run around the far turn finishing third in the Derby at 46-1. I was no where near this hard charging closer in the Derby. Trained by Bret Calhoun, Mr. Big News has the type of quick acceleration that if timed right could make him a major player in the Preakness, especially if the leaders get into a pace duel. He has upset potential.

So who wins the Preakness? I'm studying the PP's now and will be posting my tip sheet to my website at www.horseracetipsheets.com tomorrow. I've got a speicial going for the Preakness. Buy my Preakness Tip Sheet and get my Gridiron Gold Sheet football newsletter absolutely FREE!

GIddy up, I gotta get back to work now.

I’m loading up on the pinstripes. Masahiro Tanaka is on the hill, and I’d much rather side with his playoff experience than Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco, who is making just his third career postseason game. Either way the pressure will be
on Carrasco, as his team will either be 0-1 in this series, and facing elimination, or 1-0 and having to face an angry Yankees lineup. Tanaka, in either situation, is more suited to handle the pressure with a stellar playoff career to his credit. The right-hander owns a 1.76 ERA with 37 strikeouts in eight playoff starts dating back to 2015. He has stifled opponents to a .157 average in the playoffs. TAKE: YANKEES -125

This is an intriguing matchup in Arlington Texas, of two young starters that have both shown flashes of greatness. Jose Urquidy has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of his four starts this year and most likely will be called upon to pitch in the postseason. Kyle Cody has made seven appearances for the Rangers, with the last four as a starter slowly going deeper into games. These two faced off on 9/15, with Urquidy getting the 4-1 victory when he allowed 1 run on 3 hits while striking out 7. Line at this time is Houston -177, a bit steep, therefore my recommendation is to
Take: Houston - 1.5 runs at -105.