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James Madison vs. Western Kentucky + 7.5
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers face a challenging stretch, coming off losses to Louisiana Tech, Liberty, and a split series with Jacksonville State. With four losses in their last seven non-home games, the Hilltoppers are struggling to regain momentum. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has shown flashes of brilliance, completing 66.6% of his passes for 2,806 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Wide receivers Kisean Johnson and Easton Messer have been reliable targets, combining for 1,580 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Elijah Young leads the ground game with 846 rushing yards and three scores.
Defensively, the Hilltoppers allow an average of 24.5 points and 397.5 yards per game. Devonte’ Mathews leads the team with 90 tackles, while Darius Thomas and Anthony Johnson Jr. contribute with four sacks and two interceptions, respectively. However, Western Kentucky’s recent offensive struggles could spell trouble against James Madison.
The James Madison Dukes, on the other hand, are a balanced and competitive squad. They’ve split their last six non-home games, defeating Old Dominion but falling to Appalachian State and Marshall. Alonza Barnett III has impressed under center, completing 60% of his passes for 2,598 yards, 26 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Yamir Knight and Omarion Dollison anchor the receiving corps with a combined 1,118 yards and 10 touchdowns.
On the ground, the Dukes are averaging 190 yards per game, led by George Pettaway’s 880 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, James Madison allows just 20.8 points and 323.2 yards per game, with standout performances from Jacob Dobbs (70 tackles), Eric O’Neill (12 sacks), and Terrence Spence (5 interceptions).
With Western Kentucky faltering offensively and James Madison boasting a top-25 scoring offense, the Dukes are poised for a dominant showing. Expect James Madison to secure a double-digit victory.
Pick: James Madison - 7.5
UNLV vs. California + 1.5
The California Golden Bears closed out their season with a modest 6-6 record, but the journey was anything but smooth. The Bears started strong with three straight wins but stumbled into a mid-season slump, losing to heavyweights like Florida State, Miami, Pittsburgh, and NC State. They managed to salvage the season with a 3-2 finish, highlighted by victories over Oregon State, Wake Forest, and Stanford.
Their last game on November 30, however, was a forgettable affair against SMU. California fell behind early, trailing 21-0 by halftime, and ultimately endured a humbling 38-6 defeat. QB Chandler Rogers contributed a mere 84 passing yards, while Jaydn Ott led the ground game with just 37 yards. Nyziah Hunter offered a bright spot with five catches for 85 yards, but the Bears' offense as a whole failed to ignite.
Meanwhile, the UNLV Rebels showcased a strong season, losing only two of their first eight games—both narrow defeats to Syracuse and Boise State. They went on a four-game tear with wins over Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State, and Nevada. However, their Mountain West Championship matchup against Boise State ended in disappointment.
In their December 6 contest, the Rebels fell behind 21-0 over three quarters, managing only a late touchdown in a 21-7 loss. QB Hajj-Malik Williams passed for 110 yards with one interception, while Kylin James stood out with an electrifying 95 yards on just two carries.
Despite the setback, UNLV's offense has been a force this season, averaging 36.2 points per game and boasting a powerful ground attack that churns out 251.2 rushing yards per game. Their offensive struggles against Boise State—a season-low 13 first downs and a 5-of-16 conversion rate on third downs—were an outlier.
California, on the other hand, has struggled offensively down the stretch. Their performance against SMU included only 254 total yards and 14 first downs. The Bears have been held under 26 points in three consecutive games and five of their last seven. While Cal's balanced attack averages 26.3 points per game and features 266.3 passing yards per contest, their inconsistency has been glaring.
The Verdict
This matchup hinges on whether UNLV can impose their dominant rushing attack early and keep California's offense sidelined. The Rebels have the tools to dictate the pace of the game, and if their ground game gets rolling, the Golden Bears may struggle to keep up.
This matchup hinges on whether UNLV can impose their dominant rushing attack early and keep California's offense sidelined. The Rebels have the tools to dictate the pace of the game, and if their ground game gets rolling, the Golden Bears may struggle to keep up.
Pick: UNLV + 1.5
Sam Houston State vs Georgia Southern - 6
Georgia Southern has a ton of confidence and they have won two games in a row. Two games ago against Coastal Carolina they secured the 26-6 victory and in the last game against Appalachian State they were able to secure the 29-20 victory. JC French had a strong game, completing 16 of his 19 passes for 166 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. Jalen Wright had a strong game rushing 18 times for 125 yards and three touchdowns. Josh Dallas had a strong game finishing with five catches for 53 yards and a touchdown. Georgia Southen is averaging 28.2 points while their defense is giving up 27.33 points per game. The offense at times has been inconsistent and they are going to need the defense to be strong again here.
It has been a big season for Sam Houston State and they are coming off quite the victory in the last game. Sam Houston State comes into this game with a 9-3 record overall and they were able to overcome Liberty in the last game. Sam Houston State gave up only 18 points and they ended up winning by two points. Hunter Watson completed 19 of his 33 passes for 202 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Jay Ducker finished with 24 carries for 96 yards. Simeon Evans finished with six carries for 83 yards and two touchdowns.
Sam Houston State on the season is averaging 23.2 points while their defense is giving up 20 points per game. In this game, Sam Houston State is going to need to get the offense out to a fast start to really put the pressure on. Sam Houston State is averaging only 23.2 points per game, but their defense has been strong. That is going to be the difference here.
Pick: Sam Houston + 6
Jacksonville State vs Ohio - 2.5
The Ohio Bobcats are coming off wins over Toledo, Ball State, and Miami Ohio. Ohio has won 3 straight non-home games. Parker Navarro is completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 2,169 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Coleman Owen and Chase Hendricks have combined for 1,558 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, while Rodney Harris II has 22 receptions.
The Ohio Bobcats ground game is averaging 211.6 yards per contest, and Anthony Tyus III leads the way with 1,111 yards and 9 touchdowns. Defensively, Ohio is allowing 17.5 points and 296.3 yards per game. Blake Leake leads the Ohio Bobcats with 84 tackles, Bradley Weaver has 8 sacks and Tank Pearson has 4 interceptions.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks recently beat FIU and Sam Houston, and they split games with Western Kentucky. Jacksonville State has won 3 of its last 4 non-home games. Tyler Huff is completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 2,179 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Cam Vaughn and Michael Pettway have combined for 1,074 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, while Brock Rechsteiner has 13 receptions.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks ground game is averaging 267.3 yards per contest, and Tre Stewart leads the way with 1,604 yards and 23 touchdowns. Defensively, Jacksonville State is allowing 25.8 points and 385.7 yards per game. Fred Perry leads the Jacksonville State Gamecocks with 97 tackles, Reginald Hughes has 4.5 sacks and Zechariah Poyser has 3 interceptions.
The Ohio Bobcats head into this contest hot, and that includes 6 straight covers. Jacksonville State will also be without some key players, which includes safety Zechariah Poyser, who is currently being recruited by SEC programs. I understand Ohio being the favorite. We saw Jacksonville State lose to WKU and then respond with a dominating performance the very next week to win the CUSA title. I’m just not a fan of a team losing a boatload of players going into the bowl games. Give me the red hot Bobcats. Pick: Ohio - 3
Florida vs Tulane + 10.5
The Florida Gators are 7-5 (4-4) this year and they finished 10th in the SEC standings. Florida finished the regular season with a 31-11 win over Florida State in their annual rivalry game. Florida also has wins over Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, UCF, Mississippi State, and Samford this year. The Gators do have five losses against Miami, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas, but they have won three games in a row coming into this game. The Florida offense has scored 28.4 points per game with 219.1 passing yards and 156 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 24.3 points per game this season. DJ Lagway has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,610 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Jadan Baugh has rushed for 603 yards and seven scores this year. Florida does have quite a few injuries on their defense, but they don’t have much production in the transfer portal (as of right now). The Tulane Green Wave are 9-4 (7-1) this season and they finished second in the AAC standings. Tulane did make the conference championship game, but they lost to Army by a score of 35-14. Tulane has nine wins against Navy, Temple, Charlotte, North Texas, Rice, UAB, South Florida, Louisiana, and SELA. The Green Wave has four losses against Kansas State, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Army. Tulane did end the season with two losses to Memphis and Army, but they did win the previous eight games. The Tulane offense has scored 37.2 points per game with 215.8 passing yards and 205.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 19.7 points per game this season. Tulane’s starting quarterback, Darian Mensah, transferred to Duke, so he will not be playing in this game. The Green Wave’s second and third-string quarterback are also in the portal, but Ty Thompson plans to play in the bowl game. Florida comes into this matchup with plenty of momentum and they are looking to end the season with a fourth straight win here. The Gators played a very difficult schedule this year, but they were able to pick up wins against LSU and Ole Miss in two of their last three games. Tulane had a great season in the AAC, but they are missing their starting quarterback and the transfer portal has really hurt them coming into this matchup. Florida has much more talent than Tulane does, so the only question is if the Gators will care about this bowl game. I do think we will see a good effort in this game from Florida, as they have a ton of momentum right now, and finishing this schedule with eight wins would be a big positive. Take the Gators to win big.
PICK: FLORIDA - 10.5
The Florida Gators are 7-5 (4-4) this year and they finished 10th in the SEC standings. Florida finished the regular season with a 31-11 win over Florida State in their annual rivalry game. Florida also has wins over Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, UCF, Mississippi State, and Samford this year. The Gators do have five losses against Miami, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas, but they have won three games in a row coming into this game. The Florida offense has scored 28.4 points per game with 219.1 passing yards and 156 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 24.3 points per game this season. DJ Lagway has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,610 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Jadan Baugh has rushed for 603 yards and seven scores this year. Florida does have quite a few injuries on their defense, but they don’t have much production in the transfer portal (as of right now). The Tulane Green Wave are 9-4 (7-1) this season and they finished second in the AAC standings. Tulane did make the conference championship game, but they lost to Army by a score of 35-14. Tulane has nine wins against Navy, Temple, Charlotte, North Texas, Rice, UAB, South Florida, Louisiana, and SELA. The Green Wave has four losses against Kansas State, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Army. Tulane did end the season with two losses to Memphis and Army, but they did win the previous eight games. The Tulane offense has scored 37.2 points per game with 215.8 passing yards and 205.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 19.7 points per game this season. Tulane’s starting quarterback, Darian Mensah, transferred to Duke, so he will not be playing in this game. The Green Wave’s second and third-string quarterback are also in the portal, but Ty Thompson plans to play in the bowl game. Florida comes into this matchup with plenty of momentum and they are looking to end the season with a fourth straight win here. The Gators played a very difficult schedule this year, but they were able to pick up wins against LSU and Ole Miss in two of their last three games. Tulane had a great season in the AAC, but they are missing their starting quarterback and the transfer portal has really hurt them coming into this matchup. Florida has much more talent than Tulane does, so the only question is if the Gators will care about this bowl game. I do think we will see a good effort in this game from Florida, as they have a ton of momentum right now, and finishing this schedule with eight wins would be a big positive. Take the Gators to win big.
PICK: FLORIDA - 10.5
Notre Dame vs Indiana + 7
Notre Dame isn’t getting talked about a lot, but they have been impressive all season. Outside of the shocking loss against Northern Illinois, they have picked up 11 wins. In the last game against USC, the defense wasn’t great giving up 35 points, but the offense was elite scoring 49 points. Jadarian Price ran wild finishing with 12 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown. Riley Leonard also had a solid game completing 17 of his 22 passes for 155 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Running back Jeremiyah Love also appears to be healthy and that is a big key for this game. Notre Dame is averaging 39.8 points while their defense is giving up 13.6 points per game. The offense is ranked 3rd in the league while the defense is ranked 3rd. In this game, Notre Dame is going to need to get the offense going here. That is the big talking point with the argument that they don’t have any real key wins this season. In the last game against Purdue, Notre Dame scored 66 points and they ended up cruising to the victory with the defense giving up zero goals. Kurtis Rourke completed 23 of his 31 passes for 349 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Justice Ellison finished with 11 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown. Two games ago, Indiana was awful against Ohio State, and they ended up losing 38-15. Indiana on the season is averaging 43.3 points while their defense is giving up 14.7 points per game. The offense is ranked 2nd while the defense is ranked 6th. Should Indiana be in the Playoff? I know Indiana might not have the big signature win, but they are going to find the going much tougher to keep this game competitive. Notre Dame’s offense has been good, and the defense is stout. This game will be decided by double digits.
Pick: Notre Dame - 7
Notre Dame isn’t getting talked about a lot, but they have been impressive all season. Outside of the shocking loss against Northern Illinois, they have picked up 11 wins. In the last game against USC, the defense wasn’t great giving up 35 points, but the offense was elite scoring 49 points. Jadarian Price ran wild finishing with 12 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown. Riley Leonard also had a solid game completing 17 of his 22 passes for 155 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Running back Jeremiyah Love also appears to be healthy and that is a big key for this game. Notre Dame is averaging 39.8 points while their defense is giving up 13.6 points per game. The offense is ranked 3rd in the league while the defense is ranked 3rd. In this game, Notre Dame is going to need to get the offense going here. That is the big talking point with the argument that they don’t have any real key wins this season. In the last game against Purdue, Notre Dame scored 66 points and they ended up cruising to the victory with the defense giving up zero goals. Kurtis Rourke completed 23 of his 31 passes for 349 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Justice Ellison finished with 11 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown. Two games ago, Indiana was awful against Ohio State, and they ended up losing 38-15. Indiana on the season is averaging 43.3 points while their defense is giving up 14.7 points per game. The offense is ranked 2nd while the defense is ranked 6th. Should Indiana be in the Playoff? I know Indiana might not have the big signature win, but they are going to find the going much tougher to keep this game competitive. Notre Dame’s offense has been good, and the defense is stout. This game will be decided by double digits.
Pick: Notre Dame - 7
Penn State - 8.5 vs SMU
The Mustangs lost to BYU 18-15 in game three this year, then hit a nine-game win streak. Those victories were over TCU, Florida State, Louisville, Stanford, Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia, and California. SMU fell in their next outing versus Clemson, though. In the ACC title game versus the Tigers, SMU was down 24-7 by halftime. The Mustangs got better from there but ultimately fell in a tough one 34-31. QB Kevin Jennings threw for 304 yards, three scores, and an interception. Tops in rushing was Brashard Smith with 24 carries for 113 yards. Over on the Penn State side, they opened the year with seven straight wins before a tough loss 20-13 versus Ohio State on November 2. The Lions would then beat Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland before another loss to Oregon. Matched up against the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship, the Nittany Lions faced a 38-24 deficit by the fourth quarter. Penn State made a game of it but eventually lost 45-37. Drew Allar tossed for 226 yards, three scores, and an interception. Kaytron Allen led the rushing attack on 14 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown of his own. As for SMU, they were able to hang 458 yards and 28 first downs on Clemson in their ACC Championship loss, but similarly had a couple of turnovers (one pick; and one fumble). The Mustangs average 39.9 points per game themselves but on average, they rely a bit more on the pass (267.0 YPG; 27 TDs) than they do the run (176.1 YPG; 29 TDs). Saturday’s matchup is bound to be a great one to watch, but in the end, I like Penn State to stymie the Mustangs offense just enough to cover. The Nittany Lions have been great all year and really tested an excellent Oregon team in their last outing. Penn State finished with 523 yards (297 rushing) and 28 first downs in that one but did have a couple of interceptions to sour the day. The Nittany Lions have a pretty consistent offense these days; they’ve scored 35 or more points in four of the last five outings and average 35.2 points per game this year. Penn State boasts a balanced attack with 246.5 yards per game and 27 scores through the air alongside 202.2 yards per game and 28 scores rushing.
Pick: Penn St - 8.5
Pick: Penn St - 8.5
Texas vs Clemson + 12
With just a few weeks left in the season, Clemson’s season looked to be dead, and making the college football playoff looked like such a long shot. Then they won a few games, beat SMU in the ACC Championship and they ended up sneaking in. In the last game SMU, Clemson was able to secure the 34-31 victory. Cade Klubnik completed 24 of his 41 passes for 262 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Bryan Wesco Jr had a strong game finishing with eight catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Cade Klubnik, so far this season, has thrown for 3,303 yards, 33 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Phil Mafah is having a huge season on the ground rushing 214 times for 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns. Clemson is averaging 35.5 points while their defense is giving up 23.3 points per game. The big question right now is how good is Texas? There are some questions about Texas right now and some of them questioned how good they really are after the last game against Georgia. The offense scored only 19 points and they ended up losing by three points in overtime. Quinn Ewers completed 27 of his 46 passes for 358 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Two games ago against Texas A&M, Texas was able to secure a 17-7 victory. The Longhorns are averaging 33.6 points while their defense is giving up 12.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 26th in the league while the defense is ranked 2nd in the league. On the season Ewers has thrown for 2,665 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. There are rumors about Ewers transferring after this season, and that is probably good because the best quarterback on that team is sitting on the bench. Clemson overall this season is averaging 35.5 points per game. Texas’s offense hasn’t been as good the last couple of weeks, and they are going to really struggle to get the offense going here. Clemson is going to keep this game close, and I think they can win this game outright. Back Clemson getting the points here. Pick: Clemson + 12
With just a few weeks left in the season, Clemson’s season looked to be dead, and making the college football playoff looked like such a long shot. Then they won a few games, beat SMU in the ACC Championship and they ended up sneaking in. In the last game SMU, Clemson was able to secure the 34-31 victory. Cade Klubnik completed 24 of his 41 passes for 262 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Bryan Wesco Jr had a strong game finishing with eight catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Cade Klubnik, so far this season, has thrown for 3,303 yards, 33 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Phil Mafah is having a huge season on the ground rushing 214 times for 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns. Clemson is averaging 35.5 points while their defense is giving up 23.3 points per game. The big question right now is how good is Texas? There are some questions about Texas right now and some of them questioned how good they really are after the last game against Georgia. The offense scored only 19 points and they ended up losing by three points in overtime. Quinn Ewers completed 27 of his 46 passes for 358 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Two games ago against Texas A&M, Texas was able to secure a 17-7 victory. The Longhorns are averaging 33.6 points while their defense is giving up 12.5 points per game. The offense is ranked 26th in the league while the defense is ranked 2nd in the league. On the season Ewers has thrown for 2,665 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. There are rumors about Ewers transferring after this season, and that is probably good because the best quarterback on that team is sitting on the bench. Clemson overall this season is averaging 35.5 points per game. Texas’s offense hasn’t been as good the last couple of weeks, and they are going to really struggle to get the offense going here. Clemson is going to keep this game close, and I think they can win this game outright. Back Clemson getting the points here. Pick: Clemson + 12
Clemson vs Ohio State - 8
The Ohio State Buckeyes come into the CFP as the 8-seed, finishing the year 10-2 overall and ending the regular season with a 13-10 loss to Michigan. This will be Ohio State’s 6th college football playoff appearance. Will Howard has thrown for 2,860 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 72.3% passing while Quinshon Judkins has a team-high 805 rushing yards with 8 touchdowns and TreVeyon Henderson has 751 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Jeremiah Smith has 57 grabs for a team-high 934 yards and 10 touchdowns while Emeka Egbuka has a team-high 60 receptions for 743 yards and 9 touchdowns. Carnell Tate has 41 grabs for 583 yards and 4 TDs as well this season. On defense, Sonny Styles has a team-high 76 total tackles and 4 sacks while JT Tuimoloau has a team-high 6 sacks. Cody Simon has 5 sacks Jack Sawyer has 4.5 sacks and Denzel Burke has a pair of interceptions. As a unit, Ohio State’s defense has combined for 35 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season. The Tennessee Volunteers come in as the 9-seed after finishing the year 10-2 overall. This will be Tennessee’s first college football playoff appearance. Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 2,512 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on 65.7% passing while Dylan Sampson leads the Vols on the ground with 1,485 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns and DeSean Bishop has 433 yards and 3 scores on the ground as well. Dont’e Thornton Jr. has a team-high 647 receiving yards while Bru McCoy has 432 receiving yards and Squirrel White has 364 receiving yards as well this season. Chris Brazzell II has 325 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Arion Carter leads the Vols with 65 total tackles while James Pearce Jr. has a team-high 7.5 sacks on the year. Jermod McCoy has a team-high 4 interceptions and Will Brooks also has 3 interceptions so far this season. As a unit, Tennessee’s defense has combined for 29 sacks and 11 interceptions as well on the year. I’m with Tennessee here. I just have little faith in Ohio State and Ryan Day in big games and the big games that Ohio State has played this season have usually been tight more often than not. Tennessee is battle-tested in its own right and started to come on strong down the stretch. I’ll roll with the Vols and the points in a game I think Tennessee could win outright.
Pick: Tennessee + 8
Pick: Tennessee + 8
Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA - 10
The UTSA Roadrunners (6-6, 4-4) are coming off a tough 29-24 loss to Army, a game where they held a 17-13 lead in the third quarter before surrendering 16 unanswered points. Despite the setback, the Roadrunners showed flashes of their offensive potential, but turnovers and defensive lapses ultimately cost them. UTSA was outgained 407-324 in total yards, turned the ball over three times compared to Army's one, and converted just 50% of their third-down attempts. Quarterback Owen McCown threw for 207 yards with a touchdown but was picked off twice. On the bright side, wide receiver Devin McCuin impressed with three catches for 82 yards and a score.
UTSA’s season has been a rollercoaster with losses to teams like Texas State, Rice, and Texas but also notable wins against Memphis, North Texas, and Temple. They ended their season strong, winning three of their last four games. The Roadrunner offense is electric, averaging 32.3 points per game, with 285.8 yards through the air and 161.7 on the ground. McCown has been a bright spot, completing 62% of his passes for 3,170 yards, 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Robert Henry has been a force in the backfield, rushing for 706 yards and seven touchdowns.
On the other side, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6, 3-5) head into this matchup fresh off a commanding 48-27 win over Georgia State. The Chanticleers used a dominant second half to pull away, scoring 31 points after halftime. Their defense stepped up big, forcing six turnovers and holding Georgia State to just 2-for-6 on third downs. Quarterback Ethan Vasko delivered a solid performance, throwing for 200 yards and three touchdowns, while Christian Washington paced the ground game with 124 rushing yards and a score.
Coastal Carolina’s season has been a mix of highs and lows, with wins over Appalachian State and Old Dominion but losses to teams like James Madison and Troy. Offensively, they average 29.8 points per game, fueled by 204.4 passing yards and 178.7 rushing yards per contest. Defensively, however, they’ve struggled, allowing 30.6 points per game. Adding to their challenge, Coastal Carolina will rely on Tad Hudson at quarterback, who will be making his first-ever career start.
The Matchup
UTSA’s explosive offense will be the key in this game, especially against a Coastal Carolina defense that has been porous all season. The Roadrunners' ability to score quickly and often should overwhelm a Chanticleers squad that’s missing several key players and breaking in a rookie quarterback. While Coastal Carolina might have some success with big plays against a shaky UTSA defense, sustaining drives and keeping pace with the high-octane Roadrunners seems unlikely.
Prediction
UTSA has the momentum and the firepower to control this game from start to finish. Look for the Roadrunners to take full advantage of Coastal Carolina's inexperience at quarterback and questionable defensive consistency. Roadrunners Ready to Roll!
Pick: UTSA -10
Fresno St vs Northern Illinois - 3.5
This prediction reflects the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the 2024 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, which are exacerbated by the opt-outs, transfers, coaching changes, and injuries. Here’s a refined analysis:
Key Considerations
- Quarterback Instability:
- Northern Illinois: Ethan Hampton's absence shifts the responsibility to Josh Holst, who has minimal production this season with no touchdowns and one interception.
- Fresno State: The absence of Mikey Keene leaves the Bulldogs with Jayden Mandal or Joshua Wood, both of whom have little to no collegiate experience. While Mandal shows promise as a 2023 three-star recruit, the lack of game-time experience is a concern.
- Coaching Dynamics:
- Fresno State: Interim head coach Tim Skipper may inspire the Bulldogs in his final game, but uncertainty about the players’ morale due to the coaching turnover remains.
- Northern Illinois: Stability in the coaching staff could give the Huskies a slight edge in preparation and game plan execution.
- Roster Attrition:
- Both teams are significantly impacted by player departures, including key offensive and defensive contributors. This levels the playing field but increases the unpredictability of the matchup.
- Strength of Schedule:
- Fresno State has faced a tougher schedule (per Sagarin rankings) and competed in the stronger Mountain West conference, which could give them a slight advantage in terms of preparation for high-caliber opponents.
- Weather Conditions:
- The forecast for mild and dry conditions benefits both offenses, especially given the inexperience at quarterback and the need to establish some rhythm.
- Spread and Talent Gap:
- Fresno State’s slightly superior talent pool and strength of schedule suggest value in taking them as underdogs, especially with +3 points on the spread.
Final Thoughts and Pick
The uncertainties make this a difficult game to predict confidently. However, Fresno State’s higher level of competition throughout the season, combined with potential motivation to send off their interim coach with a win, tips the scales slightly in their favor. This pick leans on the Bulldogs' superior conference strength and talent depth to stay competitive or potentially win outright.
Pick: Fresno State +3.5
South Florida vs. San Jose State - 8
It’s been a rollercoaster season for South Florida (5-7), who struggled early with tough losses to Alabama, Miami, Tulane, and Memphis. But the Bulls found their stride in the latter half of the season, finishing strong with a 4-2 run, securing wins over UAB, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, and Tulsa to clinch a bowl eligibility spot.
In their last game against Rice on November 30, the Bulls faced a steep 27-7 deficit at halftime. Despite a strong second-half rally where they scored 21 unanswered points, South Florida fell short, losing 35-28. Quarterback Israel Carter threw for 93 yards and two touchdowns, while wide receiver Sean Atkins was a standout, hauling in seven catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. The Bulls’ defense struggled in the loss, giving up 550 yards to Rice, but their offense has shown the ability to light up the scoreboard, posting 122 combined points in their previous two victories.
San Jose State (6-6) started the season with three straight wins but has since struggled to maintain consistency, failing to win back-to-back games. The Spartans are 2-2 in their last four, with victories over Oregon State and Stanford, but losses to Boise State and UNLV. Their most recent win came against Samford on November 29, where they survived a late-game scare to win 34-31. Quarterback Walker Eget threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns, while Nick Nash caught two of those touchdowns, finishing with a team-high 91 receiving yards. Despite giving up 379 yards to Samford, the Spartans’ defense made up for it with three interceptions.
While the Spartans have had some strong individual performances, their offense has been inconsistent. They struggled to break the 24-point barrier in six straight games before finally surpassing it in their win over Samford. Defensively, they gave up 252 passing yards and could be vulnerable against a Bulls team that thrives when they hit 35 points or more, a mark they’ve reached in all six of their wins this season.
The Breakdown
South Florida’s offense has shown it can put up points, but the key to this game will be getting off to a strong start. They’ve been successful when they’ve set the tone early, while San Jose State has been shaky at times, especially on defense. San Jose’s defense can be exploited, and South Florida’s ability to score quickly should keep this game close.
Prediction
With South Florida’s offense clicking and San Jose State’s defense looking vulnerable, the Bulls are primed for a solid performance. The Bulls were bullied by Alabama, Miami, Tulane, and Memphis.
San Jose St is not in that class of teams. San Jose State may have the edge overall, but expect South Florida to keep it close, especially with the spread in their favor.
Pick: South Florida +8
MERRY XMAS TO ALL FROM THE GRIDIRON GOLD STAFF
Notre Dame vs. Georgia - 3
This game is a battle of physicality and strategy, with both teams coming into the Sugar Bowl with something to prove. Notre Dame boasts a 12-1 record under Marcus Freeman, featuring a stifling defense and an explosive run game powered by Jeremiyah Love. Their physical style matches well against Georgia's traditionally strong, albeit slightly diminished, defensive front.
Georgia faces a significant challenge with quarterback Carson Beck sidelined. Backup Gunner Stockton showed potential in the SEC Championship but lacks Beck's experience and poise. Georgia's reliance on its ground game and offensive line becomes critical, though the line has shown vulnerabilities this season. Defensively, Georgia still has elite playmakers, but they’ve struggled with explosive rushing plays, an area Notre Dame excels in.
The Irish's combination of disciplined defense and a high-powered rushing attack positions them well to exploit Georgia's weaknesses. However, Georgia's coaching under Kirby Smart and their knack for rising to the occasion in big games cannot be discounted.
Pick: Notre Dame's defensive dominance and ability to exploit Georgia's ground-game vulnerabilities might tip the scales in their favor. We're backing Notre Dame in a close upset.
Pick: Notre Dame +3